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From http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/schinafull.html
United States
February 2001
The South China Sea region is the world's second busiest international sea lane. More than half of the world's supertanker traffic passes through the region's waters. In addition, the South China Sea region contains oil and gas resources strategically located near large energy-consuming countries. Information contained in this report is the best available as of February 2001 and is subject to change.
The South China Sea encompasses a portion of the Pacific Ocean stretching roughly from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest, to the Strait of Taiwan (between Taiwan and China) in the northeast (see the footnote for a more precise definition). The area includes more than 200 small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. Many of these islands are partially submerged islets, rocks, and reefs that are little more than shipping hazards not suitable for habitation; the total land area of the Spratly Islands is less than 3 square miles. The islands are important, however, for strategic and political reasons, because ownership claims to them are used to bolster claims to the surrounding sea and its resources. The South China Sea is rich in natural resources such as oil and natural gas. These resources have garnered attention throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Until recently, East Asia's economic growth rates had been among the highest in the world, and despite the region's recent economic crisis, growth prospects in the long-term remain among the best in the world. This economic growth will be accompanied by an increasing demand for energy. Over the next 20 years, oil consumption in developing East Asian countries (excluding India) is expected to rise by almost 3% annually on average, with almost half of this increase coming from China. If this growth rate is maintained, oil demand for these nations will increase from about 12 million barrels per day in 2000 to more than 20 million barrels per day by 2020 - a 2/3 increase over current consumption levels. Almost all of this additional demand, as well as Japan's oil needs, will need to be imported from the Middle East and Africa, and to pass through the strategic Strait of Malacca into the South China Sea (see Figure 1). Countries in the Asia-Pacific region depend on seaborne trade to fuel their economic growth, and this has led to the sea's transformation into one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Over half of the world's merchant fleet (by tonnage) sails through the South China Sea every year. The economic potential and geopolitical importance of the South China Sea region has resulted in jockeying between the surrounding nations to claim this sea and its resources for themselves. SOUTH CHINA SEA TERRITORIAL ISSUES
Most of these claims are historical, but they are also based upon internationally accepted principles extending territorial claims offshore onto a country's continental shelf, as well as the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. UN LAW OF THE SEA
The establishment of the EEZ created the potential for overlapping claims in semi-enclosed seas such as the South China Sea. These claims could be extended by any nation which could establish a settlement on the islands in the region. South China Sea claimants have clashed as they have tried to establish outposts on the islands (mostly military) in order to conform with Article 121 in pressing their claims. The Law of the Sea Convention states that countries with overlapping claims must resolve them by good faith negotiation. The use of the Joint Development Area principle, followed in the Gulf of Thailand, is one model that has been successfully used by South China Sea claimants. REGIONAL CONFLICT AND RESOLUTION Military skirmishes have occurred numerous times over the past two decades (Tables 2 and 3). The most serious occurred in 1974, when China invaded and captured the Paracel Islands from Vietnam, and in 1988, when Chinese and Vietnamese navies clashed at Johnson Reef in the Spratly Islands, sinking several Vietnamese boats and killing over 70 sailors. Indonesia has taken the leading role in diplomatic initiatives and cooperative agreements to resolve South China Sea issues, particularly through the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) forum, which has called for the peaceful arbitration of territorial claims. ASEAN includes all South China Sea nations except for China and Taiwan, and has held a number of working groups with China and Taiwan on related issues that have the potential to foster the cooperation and friendship needed to resolve the more contentious issues in the region. Indonesia hosted the first of these workshops in 1990. These issues have also been discussed at the larger ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), held in conjunction with the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference, which draws together 22 countries which are involved in the security of the Asia Pacific region, including all ASEAN members. ASEAN ministers agreed in 1996 that there should be a regional code of conduct for the South China Sea to permit activities such as scientific research and efforts to combat piracy and drug trafficking without invoking the contentious issue of sovereignty. At the ASEAN Summit in November 1999, ASEAN members put forth a general code of conduct for resolving disputes which had been drafted by the Philippines and Vietnam. Any such agreements would need to involve non-ASEAN members such as China and Taiwan in order to be comprehensive. China, which is a member of the ARF, has argued in the past that the resolution of territorial disputes should be a bilateral issue. However, other ARF members, such as the United States, have argued that all ARF members had an interest in issues affecting the peace and stability of the region, and that the ARF forum was appropriate for discussing these issues. Views on this issue are varied:
OIL The fact that surrounding areas are rich in oil deposits has led to speculation that the Spratly Islands could be an untapped oil-bearing province located near some of the world's largest future energy consuming countries. Speculation that the Spratly Islands could have great strategic value has fueled disputes over ownership. In fact, there is little evidence outside of Chinese claims to support the view that the region contains extensive oil resources. Because of a lack of exploratory drilling, there are no proven oil reserve estimates for the Spratly or Paracel Islands, and no commercial oil or gas has been discovered there. Resource estimates for this region that have been reported in the Chinese press or attributed to Chinese officials vary greatly. Optimistic Chinese estimates of the South China Sea region's oil potential, however, have helped encourage interest in the area, with one report suggesting that the Spratly Islands region could become another Persian Gulf. One of the more moderate Chinese estimates suggested that potential oil resources (not proved reserves) of the Spratly and Paracel Islands could be as high as 105 billion barrels of oil, and another suggested that the total for the South China Sea could be as high as 213 billion barrels. A common rule-of-thumb for such frontier areas as the Spratly Islands is that perhaps 10% of the potential resources can be economically recovered. Using this rule, these Chinese estimates imply potential production levels for the Spratly Islands of 1.4 - 1.9 million barrels/day (at reserve/production ratios of 15 and 20) - comparable to 1999 oil production for the entire South China Sea region. The highest Chinese reserves estimate implies production levels that are twice as high as this. China's optimistic view of the South China Sea's hydrocarbon potential is not shared by most non-Chinese analysts. A 1993/1994 estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey, for example, estimated the sum total of discovered reserves and undiscovered resources in the offshore basins of the South China Sea at 28 billion barrels. The most optimistic Western estimates place total oil resources (not proved reserves) in the Spratly Islands at 10 billion barrels. Using the same rule-of-thumb, these reserves could yield a peak oil production level for the Spratly Islands of 137,000 - 183,000 barrels per day - the same order of magnitude as current production levels in Brunei or Vietnam. NATURAL GAS At the same time, natural gas usage among developing East Asian countries (excluding India) is expected to rise by over 7 % annually on average over the next two decades -- faster than any other fuel -- with almost half of this increase coming from China. If this growth rate is maintained, demand will exceed 20 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year - quadruple current consumption levels -- by 2020. Gas consumption could increase even faster if additional infrastructure is built. Proposals have been made to link the gas producing and consuming regions of the Pacific Rim region of Asia by pipeline, with the South China Sea geographically central to these regions. Malaysia is not only the biggest oil producer in the region, it is also the dominant natural gas producer as well, and until recently has been the primary source of growth in regional gas production. The development of natural gas resources outside of Malaysia has been hampered by the lack of infrastructure. Despite this constraint, natural gas exploration activity elsewhere in the region has been increasing. Much of this new activity had occurred in the Gulf of Thailand, offshore China, in Indonesia around the Natuna Islands, and in Vietnam in the Nam Con Son basin southeast of Vietnam (Table 6). As with oil, estimates of the South China Sea's natural gas resources vary widely. One Chinese report estimates that there are 225 billion barrels oil equivalent of hydrocarbons in the Spratly Islands alone. If 70% of these hydrocarbons are gas as some studies suggest, total gas resources (as opposed to proved reserves) would be almost 900 Tcf. If the rule of thumb for frontier areas were applied to these resource levels, the Chinese estimates would imply potential production levels for the Spratly Islands of almost 1.8 -2.2 Tcf annually (at common natural gas reserve/production ratios in the region of 40 - 50). The entire South China Sea has been estimated by the Chinese to contain more than 2,000 Tcf of natural gas resources. As with oil, China's optimistic view of the South China Sea's natural gas potential is not shared by most non-Chinese analysts. The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that the sum total of discovered natural gas reserves and undiscovered natural gas resources in the offshore basins of the South China Sea is about 266 Tcf. The most optimistic Western estimates place total natural gas resources (not proved reserves) in the Spratly Islands at 35 Tcf. Using the same rules of thumb, these reserves could yield peak natural gas production levels for the Spratly Islands of 70 - 88 billion cubic feet per year - a little less than current production levels in offshore China. These totals are far less than current Malaysian production of over 1,400 billion cubic feet per year. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Most of this is supplied by Indonesia and South China Sea producers, with Middle Eastern shipments from the UAE, Oman, and Qatar also passing through the Sea. The South China Sea region is an important supplier of LNG, with Brunei and Malaysia accounting for about a quarter of total world LNG production in 1998. SHIPPING Shipping (by tonnage) in the South China Sea is dominated by raw materials en route to East Asian countries. Tonnage via Malacca and the Spratly Islands is dominated by liquid bulk such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), with dry bulk (mostly coal and iron ore) in second place. Nearly two-thirds of the tonnage passing through the Strait of Malacca, and half of the volume passing the Spratly Islands, is crude oil from the Persian Gulf. Oil flows through the Strait of Malacca rose to 9.5 million barrels/day in 1997, and rising Asian oil demand could almost double these flows over the next two decades. Northeast Asian nations are heavily dependent upon energy shipments through the South China Sea. More than 80% of the crude oil supplies for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan flow through the Sea from the Middle East, Africa, and South China Sea nations such as Indonesia and Malaysia. LNG (above) and coal from Indonesia, South Africa, and Vietnam are also shipped via this route. As a result, about two-thirds of South Korean energy supplies, and almost 60% of Japan and Taiwan's energy supplies flow through the Sea. Piracy Sources for this report include: Center for Naval Analyses; CIA World Factbook 1999; U.S. Energy Information Administration; ASEAN; Cedigaz; International Chamber of Commerce; International Energy Agency; South China Morning Post; United Nations.
For more information on energy security issues or the South China Sea region,
see these other sources on the EIA web site: Links to other U.S. government sites: CIA World
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